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Aarkstore Enterprise – Top Frontier Oil Countries: Potential, exploration opportunities and risks-Aarkstore Enterprise Market Research

Top Frontier Oil Countries: Potential, exploration opportunities and risks

Table of Contents :  
Top Frontier Oil Countries
Executive Summary 10
Introduction and context for frontier oil exploration 10
West Africa the ‘Third Generation’: Sierra Leone, Liberia, Sao Tomé and Principe 11
Ultra Deep Water: Gulf of Mexico, the next US frontier 12
Western Sahara: A disputed frontier and the challenge of sovereignty 12
The Falkland Islands 13
Other frontier countries: Uganda, the Bahamas and the Arctic 14
Technological advances facilitating frontier access and development 15
Chapter 1 Introduction and context for frontier oil exploration 18
Summary 18
Methodology 19
The global energy market 19
Sustained fossil fuels reliance 21
Energy security 23
Peak oil 27
Security & diversity of supply 28
Maturing of traditional producing areas 30
The push for the frontiers 31
No more easy options 32
Chapter 2 West Africa, the ‘third generation’: Sierra Leone, Liberia, Sao Tomé and Principe 36
Summary 36
Background and context to the new West African exploration 37
African advantage 38
Sierra Leone 40
Political landscape 41
Natural resources and oil exploration 41
The next Jubilee? 42
Liberia 44
Reserves potential 45
Onshore potential 47
Sao Tomé and Principe 48
Investment challenges and risks in the West Africa region 52
Coping with graft 55
Exploration risk 56
Chapter 3 Ultra deepwater Gulf of Mexico, the next US frontier 60
Summary 60
Introduction 61
Offshore exploration 62
Ultra-deep discoveries 64
Maturing production driving the need to go deeper 65
Reserves potential 66
Sustained licensing 67
Facilitating investment- why the GofM? 68
Challenges and risks of going deeper 70
Chapter 4 Western Sahara: a disputed frontier 74
Summary 74
Introduction 75
Hydrocarbon prospects 75
Exploration history 79
Licenses awarded by SADR and Morocco 81
Conflicting licenses 84
Political context 87
Current political situation and impact on exploration 88
Case Study – The East Timor experience 90
Conclusion 91
Chapter 5 The Falkland Islands 96
Summary 96
Introduction 97
Exploration history & production potential 98
The North Falkland Basin 100
Recent activity 101
The ‘Southern Basins’ 102
Proven reserves in the vicinity 103
Further opportunities available for investment 106
Far north of North Falklands 108
Political context and the challenge to exploration 108
Other challenges 110
Chapter 6 Other Frontier Countries: Uganda, the Bahamas and the
Arctic 114
Summary 114
Introduction 115
Uganda overview 115
Context for oil exploration and development 115
Risks and challenges to development 119
Learning the lessons of Nigeria 120
The Bahamas 121
Context for oil exploration and development 121
Why the Bahamas? 123
Challenges and risks 124
Arctic 124
Prospectivity of Arctic basins 125
Exploration history and current activity 128
Risks and challenges 130
Chapter 7 Technological advances facilitating frontier access and development 134
Summary 134
Introduction 135
Understanding little-known reservoirs 135
The future of seismic surveying 137
Exploration drilling capabilities 139
Marketing and monetization 142
The case for liquefied natural gas 144
Floating Liquified Natural Gas (FLNG) 146
Conclusion 148
Political and economic risk assessment of Frontier oil countries 149
Appendix 153
Glossary 153
Index 154
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Global natural gas demand, IEA Reference Scenario (bcm), 2009 21
Figure 1.2: Ten largest global proven oil reserve holders (bn bls), 2009 25
Figure 1.3: Ten largest global proven gas reserve holders (trn cu meters), 2009 26
Figure 2.4: US oil imports December (bls ‘000), 2009 38
Figure 2.5: Venus and Jubilee oil discoveries 43
Figure 2.6: Liberia third licensing round acreage, 2010 46
Figure 2.7: JDZ Licensing Round 2004 50
Figure 2.8: São Tomé and Príncipe 1st Licensing Round (March 2010) 52
Figure 2.9: West Africa ‘the third generation’ SWOT 58
Figure 3.10: Gulf of Mexico estimated volume of deep water fields (Mboe), 2008 63
Figure 3.11: Ultra Deep Water Gulf of Mexico SWOT 72
Figure 4.12: Comparison North east/North West countries proven gas reserves (trn cubic feet), 2009 78
Figure 4.13: Aaiun Basin exploration well history 80
Figure 4.14: SADR Licensing Round 2008 83
Figure 4.15: Zag License Area 85
Figure 4.16: Western Sahara SWOT 93
Figure 5.17: Falkland Islands Regional Basins 99
Figure 5.18: Oil reserves in South American countries (bn bls), 2009 104
Figure 5.19: Share of gas reserves in South American countries (trn cu m), 2009 105
Figure 5.20: The Falkland Islands SWOT 112
Figure 6.21: Uganda Albertine Rift Basin 118
Figure 6.22: Key Arctic oil basins (bn bls) 126
Figure 6.23: Key Arctic gas reserves (trn cu feet) 127
Figure 6.24: Acreage offered in Baffin Bay (Greenland 2010) 129
Figure 6.25: Other countries SWOTs 131
Figure 7.26: Newbuild deep/ultra-deep water rig deliveries, 2008 141
Figure 7.27: Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production (m tons) 145
Figure 7.28: Distribution of standard gas fields, 2008 148
Figure 7.29: Frontier Oil Countries political/economic comparison, 2010 150
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Global natural gas demand, IEA Reference Scenario (bcm), 2009 21
Table 1.2: Ten largest global proven gas reserve holders (trn cu meters), 2009 26
Table 1.3: Oil production, IEA Reference Scenario (m bpd), 2009 31
Table 2.4: US oil imports December (bls ‘000), 2009 37
Table 2.5: Key discoveries offshore West Africa (excl. Nigeria and Angola) 39
Table 2.6: JDZ oil potential (m bls) 49
Table 2.7: Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI), 2009 55
Table 3.8: Deep/ultradeep GofM discoveries, 2008 64
Table 3.9: Lower Tertiary discoveries in water depths >5,000ft (2008) 65
Table 3.10: Active leases by water depth (2008) 68
Table 3.11: Licensing rounds under current five-year program 68
Table 4.12: Comparison North East/North West African countries oil reserves (bls bn), 2009 76
Table 4.13: Comparison North East/North West African countries gas reserves (trn cubic feet), 2009 78
Table 4.14: Aaiun Basin exploration well history 79
Table 4.15: Blocks offered by SADR in the 2008 licensing round 82
Table 4.16: Morocco-SADR: fiscal comparisons 2010 91
Table 5.17: Wells drilled in the North Falkland Basin (in 1998) 100
Table 5.18: Oil reserves in South American countries (bn bls), 2009 104
Table 5.19: Gas reserves in South American countries (trn cu m), 2009 105
Table 5.20: Farm-in opportunities (Argos Resources) 107
Table 5.21: Farm-in opportunities (Desire Petroleum) 108
Table 6.22: Uganda licensing status 117
Table 6.23: Bahamas exploration well history 122
Table 6.24: Key Arctic oil reserves (bn bls) 125
Table 6.25: Key Arctic gas reserves (trn cu feet) 126
Table 7.26: Key global oil & gas pipelines 143
Table 7.27: Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production 145
Table 7.28: Distribution of standard gas fields, 2008 147
Table 7.29: Frontier oil countries political/economic comparison, 2010 149

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About the Author

Minal H
SEO
vinod.minal@gmail.com
http://www.aarkstore.com

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